Environmental Science and Technology, Vol. 46, Issue 12, p. 11497-11504

Expert Judgments about RD&D and the Future of Nuclear Energy

Laura D. Anadon^a, Valentina Bosetti^b, Matthew Bunn^a, Michela Catenacci^b, and Audrey Lee ^c
aJohn F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, 79 John F. Kennedy Street, Cambridge, Massachusetts, 02138, United States
^bFondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Corso Magenta 63, 20123, Milan, Italy
^cCalifornia Public Utilities Commission, 505 Van Ness Avenue, San Francisco, California, 94102, United States

Abstract

Probabilistic estimates of the cost and performance of future nuclear energy systems under different scenarios of government research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) spending were obtained from 30 U.S. and 30 European nuclear technology experts. We used a novel elicitation approach which combined individual and group elicitation. With no change from current RD&D funding levels, experts on average expected current (Gen. III/III+) designs to be somewhat more expensive in 2030 than the were in 2010, and they expected the next generation of designs (Gen. IV) to be more expensive still as of 2030. Projected costs of proposed small modular reactors (SMRs) were similar to those of Gen. IV systems. The experts almost unanimously recommended large increases in government support for nuclear RD&D (generally 23 times current spending). The majority expected that such RD&D would have only a modest effect on cost, but would improve performance in other areas, such as safety, waste management, and uranium resource utilization. The U.S. and E.U. experts were in relative agreement regarding how government RD&D funds should be allocated, placing particular focus on very high temperature reactors, sodium-cooled fast reactors, fuels and materials, and fuel cycle technologies.

List of the 60 E.U. and U.S. Nuclear Experts Who Participated in this Study

Name	Previous and/or current affiliation	Country
Markku Anttila	VTT (Technical Research Centre of Finland)	Finland
Fosco Bianchi	Italian National Agency for New Technologies, Energy & Sustainable Economic Development (ENEA)	Italy
Luigi Bruzzi	University of Bologna	Italy
Franco Casali	ENEA; IAEA; University of Bologna	Italy
Jean-Marc Cavedon	Paul Scherrer Institut	Switzerland
Didier De Bruyn	SCK CEN, the Belgian Nuclear Research Centre	Belgium
Marc Deffrennes	European Commission, DG TREN, Euratom	Belgium
Allan Duncan	Euratom, UK Atomic Energy Authority, HM Inspectorate of Pollution	United Kingdom
Dominique Finon	Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Centre International de Recherche sur lEnvironnement et le Developpement	France
Konstantin Foskolos	Paul Scherrer Institut	Switzerland
Michael Fuetterer	Joint Research Centre - European Commission	The Netherlands
Kevin Hesketh	UK National Nuclear Laboratory	United Kingdom
Christian Kirchsteiger	European Commission, DG Energy & Transport	The Netherlands
Peter Liska	Nuclear Power Plants Research Institute	Slovak Republic
Bruno Merk	Institute of Safety Research Forschungszentrum Dresden-Rossendorf	Germany
Julio Martins Montalvo e Silva	Instituto Tecnologico e Nuclear	Portugal
Stefano Monti	Italian National agency for new technologies, Energy and sustainable economic development (ENEA)	Italy
William Nuttall	University of Cambridge	United Kingdom
Francois Perchet	World Nuclear University	United Kingdom
Enn Realo	Radiation Safety Department, Environmental Board, Estonia; University of Tartu	Estonia
Hans-Holger Rogner	International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)	Austria
David Shropshire	Joint Research Centre - European Commission	The Netherlands
Simos Simopoulos	National Technical University of Athens; Greek Atomic Energy Commission, NTUA	Greece
Renzo Tavoni	Italian National agency for new technologies, Energy and sustainable economic development (ENEA)	Italy
Andrej Trkov	Institute Jozef Stefan	Slovenja
Harri Tuomisto	Fortum Nuclear Services Oy	Finland
Ioan Ursu	Horia Hulubei National Institute of Physics and Nuclear Engineering (IFIN-HH)	Romania
Bob van der Zwann	Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands (ECN)	The Netherlands
Georges van Goethem	European Commission, DG Research, Euratom	Belgium
Simon Webster	European Commission, DG Energy, Euratom	Belgium
John F. Ahearne	National Academy of Sciences, Sigma Xi,Nuclear Regulatory Commission	USA
Johnhong Ahn	University of California, Berkeley	USA
Edward D. Arthur	Advanced Reactor Concepts, Los Alamos National Laboratory, University of New Mexico	USA
Sydney J. Ball	Oak Ridge National Laboratory	USA
Ashok S. Bhatnagar	Tennessee Valley Authority Nuclear Operations	USA
Robert J. Budnitz	Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Nuclear Regulatory Commission	USA
Douglas M. Chapin	MPR Associates	USA
Michael L. Corradini	University of Wisconsin-Madison	USA
B. John Garrick	U.S. Nuclear Waste Technical Review Board	USA
Michael W. Golay	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	USA
Eugene S. Grecheck	Dominion Energy	USA
Pavel Hejzlar	TerraPower	USA
J. Stephen Herring	Idaho National Laboratory	USA
Thomas Isaacs	Stanford University, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory	USA
Kazuyoshi Kataoka	Toshiba	USA
Andrew C. Klein	Oregon State University	USA
Milton Levenson	Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Bechtel, EPRI	USA
Regis Matzie	Westinghouse	USA
Andrew Orrell	Sandia National Laboratory	USA
Kenneth L. Peddicord	Texas A&M University	USA
Per F. Peterson	University of California, Berkeley	USA
Paul S. Pickard	Sandia National Laboratory	USA
Burton Richter	Stanford University, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory	USA
Geoffrey Rothwell	Stanford University	USA
Pradip Saha	GE Hitachi Nuclear Energy	USA
Craig F. Smith	Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Monterey Naval Postgraduate School	USA
Finis Southworth	Areva North America	USA
Temitope Taiwo	Argonne National Laboratory	USA
Neil E. Todreas	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	USA
Edward Wallace	NuScale, PBMR Ltd. , Tennessee Valley Authority	USA